Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Let the Games Begin!

I thought I’d start off with a quick introduction of myself and what my goals are here.

I’ve been a professional gambler for almost 10 years now, playing poker almost exclusively.   It went quite well, but as games got tougher online, I began to search out my exit strategy.

I’ve begun doing financial analysis and feel that’s where my future lies.   But as I study markets, I’ve begun a sort of pet project which pertains to sports betting.

Over the past few months, I’ve developed a predictive model to help determine the most likely outcome of NBA games.   More specifically, the total scores of these games.

While I don’t intend to discuss the model, I will post my predictions of all games prior to tip-off.  I will, however, only be betting those games where I feel it is justified.

This is a project undertaken to help me get comfortable with using Excel/stata in great depth.  In that sense, regardless of the results, this has already been a success.

As far as goals, I would be happy if my model could beat the bookies enough to cover vig.  I would be thrilled with any significant ROI.   
 
Either way, this has been my baby for the last few months, and I’m looking forward to putting it to work tomorrow.

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